Mike Sell for Congress · FL-CD4 2026 · Forward Party

The Hidden Money Trail.

Washington sends billions to Florida. We're showing you exactly where it goes. And where it should go instead.

$7.0T
Federal budget FY2025
$1.9T
Hidden tax breaks in the federal code
1.5M
Floridians projected to lose health coverage
$37.9B
Federal dollars in Florida's state budget
One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) cuts: what Florida stands to lose
Florida has the highest health coverage enrollment in the nation. More Floridians are at risk from this bill than residents of any other state.

The biggest risk isn't Medicaid. It's health insurance premiums. About 1.4 million Floridians are about to lose the financial help they need to pay for their health coverage. That's 93% of the total projected coverage loss, driven by the expiration of enhanced subsidies through the Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplace. Florida never expanded Medicaid, so most Floridians don't have a Medicaid safety net to fall back on. When their subsidies end, many will simply go uninsured. Source: KFF / Florida Policy Institute (Aug 2025).

Floridians projected to lose coverage, 93% through ACA Marketplace subsidy expiration
1.5M
Range 1.1M–1.9M (FPI/KFF). Not a Medicaid story. A premium affordability story.
FL uninsured rate projected
16.7%
Up from a historic low of 10.7%
New annual grocery program bill handed to Florida
$1.4B
$1.2B in benefits + $205M in admin, due by 2028. Florida has never owed this before.
Share of grocery benefit costs Florida must now fund
25%
Federal government covered 100% of SNAP benefits since the program began. That ends in 2027.
FL admin cost for running SNAP: new obligation
$205M
Up from ~$89M. Florida now pays 75% of admin costs instead of 50%. More than doubled.
What the bill cuts: program by program
ACA Marketplace
Health insurance subsidies end. Florida is the most exposed state in the nation.

4.7 million Floridians buy insurance through the ACA Marketplace. 97% of them receive a subsidy to make it affordable. When those subsidies expire, premiums will more than double for many families. Florida didn't expand Medicaid, so there is no backup for people who get priced out. Source: KFF, PolitiFact confirmed.

Medicaid
Work requirements added, with limited impact on Florida specifically

The bill adds work requirements and more frequent eligibility checks for Medicaid. Because Florida never expanded Medicaid, the impact here is smaller than in states that did. RAND's analysis found Florida sees less than 0.5% change to its Medicaid budget. Source: RAND RRA4098-1 (Feb 2026).

SNAP
For the first time in history, states must pay part of the grocery bill

The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) has always been fully federally funded for benefits. That changes in 2027. Florida will owe 25% of the cost of the actual food benefits, plus a larger share of admin costs. The total: roughly $1.4 billion a year by 2028. Work requirements now extend to age 64. Source: CBO, FPI, WUSF.

Education
COVID school relief money is gone. No replacement is coming.

Federal emergency education funds from the pandemic have been spent. Florida's $3.9 billion federal education budget now has no emergency cushion. Title I funding for low-income schools faces flat appropriations with no new backstop in place.

Housing
$7.2 billion added nationally for housing in FY2026. FL-CD4 keeps leaving it on the table.

Federal housing dollars actually increased. But FL-CD4 consistently under-applies for HOME matching funds and competitive grants. The money is there. The applications aren't being written. This is a Purse opportunity. Source: Bipartisan Policy Center THUD analysis.

Florida's exposure by program
High impact
Moderate impact
Limited impact (Florida didn't expand Medicaid)
Bar length = relative impact score (0–100), not a dollar figure. Hover for the actual number. Sources: KFF (ACA); CBO pub. 61367 / FPI (SNAP); RAND RRA4098-1 (Medicaid)
Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE): what was cut, what it cost, and what we get back if we fix it
DOGE called this budget reform. In practice, it cut the staff who process your Social Security check, audit the wealthy, and protect you from predatory lenders.
Social Security backlog growth
+94%
After 7,000+ staff were cut
Taxes going uncollected each year
$160B
IRS enforcement gutted
Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) complaint cases resolved
1%
Down from 20% before the cuts. Staff reduced from ~1,700 to about 50.
U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) annual budget eliminated
$7B/yr
Disease surveillance and export markets gone

Why this is a money story, not just a politics story: DOGE moved money away from services working Floridians depend on. The question is not whether it cut spending. It did. The question is who absorbed those cuts. And what it would cost to undo the damage.

Not everything DOGE touched was wrong. Some of it was overdue. IT consolidation across 600 payroll systems, selling empty federal office buildings, and auditing overseas programs that hadn't been reviewed in years. Those belong in the Keep column. The Purse plan is not against efficiency. It is against cutting the services working people depend on while leaving corporate tax breaks untouched. The Keep items are at the bottom of this tab.

Cuts to reverse: what they cost and what they return
Reverse
4 million living Americans were marked deceased. Their Social Security was cut off.

The Social Security Administration (SSA), the agency that sends retirement and disability checks, lost more than 7,000 employees. The backlog for new claims grew 94%. Four million living Americans were incorrectly marked as deceased, with no automatic fix. In FL-CD4, where 18% of residents are over 65, the average wait for a disability decision is now 7+ months. Appeals can take 4 to 5 years. These are people who already paid in. Cost to restore SSA staffing: ~$800M per year.

Reverse
Every $1 spent on IRS enforcement returns $5 to $9. We stopped spending it.

Thousands of IRS agents were cut. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) shows a $5–$9 return on every $1 invested in tax enforcement. The cuts protect complex, high-income filers most. Florida's share of federal program funding is tied to national revenue. Less collection means less money for Medicaid, schools, and roads in FL-CD4. Restoring enforcement staffing pays for itself within 18 months.

Reverse
The CFPB returned $21 billion to consumers over its lifetime. Now it's shut down.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) was cut from ~1,700 staff to a skeleton crew. Before the cuts, it resolved 20% of consumer complaints filed, including against predatory lenders, debt collectors, and credit bureaus. That rate is now under 1%. In a district where median household income is $62,000, a wrong credit report or an illegal fee can be the difference between qualifying for a mortgage or not. Full restoration costs ~$700M per year. Estimated annual return to consumers: $3–5 billion.

Reverse
USAID is gone. So is the early-warning system for the next pandemic.

Over 90% of U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) programs were cut, including Centers for Disease Control (CDC) disease surveillance that caught outbreaks before they crossed borders, agricultural programs that built export markets for American farmers, and democracy programs that reduced the conditions that create refugee crises. The annual budget was $7 billion. Less than 0.1% of federal spending. Naval Station Mayport's mission depends on the regional stability that USAID helped maintain.

Reverse
Half of the Department of Education's staff is gone. Duval's schools feel it.

Roughly 50% of Education Department staff were cut. Civil rights enforcement, special education monitoring, and student loan oversight all depend on people who no longer have jobs. In Duval County, where Title I funding supports more than 60% of public schools, reduced federal oversight means reduced accountability for how those dollars are spent. Cost to restore: ~$900M per year.

Reverse
VA benefits staff was cut. The people waiting longest to hear back are veterans.

DOGE cut staff at the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) who handle benefits processing, IT support, and benefits coordination. Northeast Florida has one of the highest concentrations of military families in the country. NAS Jacksonville, Naval Station Mayport, and Blount Island Command are all in or adjacent to FL-CD4. Cutting the staff who process earned veteran benefits is not efficiency. It's a broken promise to the people who served.

Legal guardrails: what needs to be written into law before any future "efficiency" review
Guardrail
Anyone accessing federal databases must have a security clearance and tell Congress first

DOGE operatives accessed Social Security, Internal Revenue Service (IRS), and other federal databases without confirmed security clearances and without the 72-hour congressional notification the law already requires. Whistleblowers at the Social Security Administration (SSA) estimated a 65% chance of a catastrophic data breach. 14 lawsuits were filed across 8 agencies. Fix: security clearance required, agency IG approval required, public annual audit required.

Guardrail
Firing more than 100 federal workers at once requires a 60-day public review

DOGE carried out mass layoffs across dozens of agencies without following existing federal workforce reduction rules. Courts blocked many of them. Fix: any reduction of more than 100 employees in a single agency requires a 60-day review period and a public impact assessment. Workers separated illegally get reinstated with back pay.

Guardrail
Congress voted to spend the money. The president doesn't get to unspend it.

The Impoundment Control Act of 1974 was written specifically to prevent presidents from freezing money Congress already approved. DOGE froze and cancelled congressionally approved funds across education, housing, foreign aid, and research. Fix: Congress should have legal standing to sue when approved funds are frozen. Frozen funds must be released automatically 30 days after a court order with no active appeal.

Guardrail
Government contracts go to the best bid, not to companies run by friends

Multiple contracts were cancelled during DOGE operations and replaced with no-bid awards to companies with financial ties to DOGE-affiliated individuals. Fix: a mandatory audit of every contract cancelled and replaced. Zero tolerance for no-bid awards without independent inspector general certification.

Cuts worth keeping, with conditions
Keep
The federal government runs 600 separate payroll systems. That's fixable.

Decades of agency-by-agency tech buying created real redundancy. Consolidating payroll, HR, and records management saves money without cutting any services. Condition: do it through proper procurement, require competitive bidding, and publish a public dashboard showing actual savings.

Keep
Federal office buildings are sitting empty. Sell them.

The government manages a real estate portfolio where many buildings are 20–30% utilized, especially after remote work became permanent. Selling underused properties is straightforward. Condition: fair-market-value certification on every sale. Proceeds go to deficit reduction, not around the appropriations process.

Keep
Audit overseas programs first. Then cut the ones that don't work.

DOGE was right that some overseas programs hadn't been evaluated in years. The problem was the method: eliminate everything rather than audit first. Condition: do the audit DOGE skipped. Restore programs with clear outcomes and American interest. Permanently cut the ones that can't show either. Publish the results publicly.

The bottom line: what reversal costs vs. what it pays back
DOGE reversal: annual cost vs. estimated annual return
What it costs to restore each cut program vs. what that investment returns to the federal treasury and to working families each year.
Annual restoration cost
Estimated annual return
Return estimates: CBO enforcement ROI ($5–9:1 on IRS), CFPB lifetime return ($21B over 10yr), SSA processing liability reduction. IRS figure is CBO-sourced. All others are floor estimates.
Pushback

"DOGE saved money. You want to spend it all back." Restoring the IRS, SSA, and CFPB is not spending. It is investing in functions with documented positive returns. The IRS returns $5–$9 for every $1 invested. The CFPB returned $21 billion to consumers over its lifetime. Leaving these agencies gutted is a choice. Working families are the ones paying for it.

Pushback

"Some agencies really are too big." Agreed. IT consolidation and empty office sales belong in the Keep column. The Purse plan is not against efficiency. It is against cutting the services working people depend on while leaving corporate tax breaks untouched.

Opportunities: the Purse plan in action
Every item below is a real, documented federal opportunity tied to Mike's platform commitments. All of them are scoped to FL-CD4: Clay and Nassau counties, and Duval County west and north of the St. Johns River.
Invest: put federal dollars to work here Reclaim: reverse a cut or restore a program Defund / Redirect: stop wasteful spending Tax Reform: close the loophole
Healthcare
Healthcare: Invest

Restore ACA health insurance subsidies

1.4M Floridians at risk of losing coverage

Florida has the highest ACA enrollment in the country: 4.7 million people, 97% of whom receive subsidies. Restoring enhanced premium tax credits keeps working families covered. Without action, Florida's uninsured rate climbs from 10.7% to 16.7%.

Healthcare: Invest

Let Medicare negotiate drug prices

U.S. drug prices run 2–5x what other countries pay

American drug prices are among the highest in the world. Not because the drugs are different, but because of how pharmaceutical companies use patents and lobbying power. Giving Medicare full negotiation authority brings prices down for the 4.7 million Floridians enrolled.

Healthcare: Reclaim

Stop making eligible families re-prove their coverage every 6 months

Coverage lost to paperwork, not ineligibility

The bill added more frequent eligibility checks for Medicaid. Most people who lose coverage during these checks are still eligible. They just missed a form. Annual renewals with automatic income verification through the IRS would keep eligible families covered. The federal money already exists. Only the bureaucracy needs to change.

Healthcare: Invest

Fund mental health and addiction recovery in FL-CD4

~$50M Florida share, not all of it claimed

SAMHSA distributes $794 million a year in mental health and substance abuse block grants nationally. Florida's share, based on population, is roughly $50 million annually across the Community Mental Health Services Block Grant (MHBG) and the Substance Use Prevention, Treatment, and Recovery Services Block Grant (SUBG). Florida has historically underspent these allocations. Crime, homelessness, and overdose deaths in FL-CD4 are downstream of untreated mental health. The money is appropriated. The applications need to be written. Source: SAMHSA Feb 2026.

Healthcare: Invest

Bring VA healthcare to local providers in FL-CD4

25,000 active duty and civilian personnel at NAS Jax and Mayport

FL-CD4 has one of Florida's largest active-duty and veteran populations. VA MISSION Act community care contracts let VA-covered services be delivered through local providers. Shorter wait times, closer to home.

Healthcare: Tax Reform

Cap the employer health insurance tax break to fund the public option

$300B per year tax break, the largest single federal tax expenditure

The biggest tax break in the federal code subsidizes employer-sponsored insurance by making it tax-free. It locks in a system that leaves out the self-employed, gig workers, and small business owners. Capping it for high earners is what pays for a public option.

Healthcare: Invest

National paid family leave

$500B per year economic cost of doing nothing

The U.S. is the only wealthy country without guaranteed paid leave for new parents and caregivers. The cost of not having it, in workforce dropout, emergency room overuse, and lost tax revenue, exceeds what the program would cost.

Pushback

Critics say capping the employer health exclusion could raise taxes on union health plans. The response: a cap applies above a threshold that protects average worker plans. A public option has majority public support. Failure to pass has been a political problem, not a policy one.

Food Security
Food Security: Reclaim

Restore the federal grocery benefit match

$1.4B annual new cost to Florida, reversed

For the first time in SNAP's history, states now owe a share of the grocery benefit costs. Florida faces roughly $1.2 billion in new benefit costs plus $205 million in additional admin costs. That is about $1.4 billion a year by 2028. Restoring the federal match protects 2.9 million Floridians. Source: CBO / FPI.

Food Security: Defund / Redirect

Roll back the work requirement age expansion for food benefits

800,000 older adults cut from SNAP nationally

The bill raised the work requirement age for SNAP from 54 to 64. Adults aged 55–64 face real structural barriers to employment. Cutting their food benefits doesn't create jobs. Rolling this back redirects those benefit dollars to the people who need them.

Pushback

Conservative critics say SNAP work requirements reduce dependency. The response: the expansion targets adults 55–64 who face structural barriers to employment. This is cutting benefits from people who can't meet requirements. Not creating incentives for people who can.

Infrastructure
Infrastructure: Invest

Apply for the federal infrastructure money FL-CD4 keeps missing

$800M already authorized but not applied for in Duval alone

RAISE grants, infrastructure law carryover funds, and EPA septic-to-sewer programs exist across the district. Duval's $1 billion septic problem qualifies for EPA Clean Water financing. The money is appropriated. The applications need to be written. That's a first-term job for a member of Congress.

Infrastructure: Invest

Close the broadband gap in rural Clay and Nassau

$667M in federal broadband funding allocated to Florida

Rural pockets of Clay and Nassau still don't have reliable internet. No internet means no remote job applications, no telehealth visits, no school from home. The Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment (BEAD) program makes unserved communities the top priority.

Infrastructure: Defund / Redirect

Redirect overseas conflict spending to domestic infrastructure

$872B annual defense discretionary budget

Every 1% reallocation from overseas conflict spending equals $8.7 billion available for infrastructure at home. This is about overseas conflict spending. Not base operations, not military pay. NAS Jacksonville and Mayport jobs are not at risk.

Pushback

Opponents say federal infrastructure grants require local matching funds and grant-writing capacity Duval currently lacks. The response: building that grant-writing capacity is a straightforward first-term investment. The platform targets overseas conflict spending. Not base jobs.

Housing
Housing: Invest

Claim the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) money Duval already qualifies for

$14.5M per year in Duval: the floor, not the ceiling

Jacksonville receives $7.1M in Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) funds, $3.6M in HOME affordable housing funds, and $3.3M in Housing Opportunities for Persons with AIDS (HOPWA) assistance annually. Choice Neighborhoods grants, Section 202 senior housing, and competitive affordable development grants are largely unclaimed across the district.

Housing: Tax Reform

End the tax break that's helping corporations buy up Duval's housing

$85B per year tax expenditure

A federal tax provision lets institutional investors write off rental properties far faster than they actually lose value. This is the financial mechanism behind build-to-rent growing 600% in Duval since 2019. Ending it for large investors slows the conversion of homes into permanent rentals.

Housing: Tax Reform

Limit the tax break that keeps homes out of reach for first-time buyers

$65B per year tax expenditure

A 1031 exchange lets investors sell a rental property and roll the profits into a new one indefinitely, deferring taxes forever. This cycles homes through institutional hands rather than selling them to owner-occupants. Limiting 1031 to smaller portfolios redirects the benefit toward the buyers who need it most.

Pushback

Critics say closing real estate tax breaks hurts small landlords who use the same provisions. The response: reforms would apply only to portfolios above a threshold, protecting small landlords while targeting the institutional players driving market distortion.

Education and Workforce
Education: Invest

Protect and grow Title I and workforce training funding

$7.4M Duval CTE grant, plus Clay and Nassau

Duval County has one of Florida's largest low-income student populations. Title I funds flow to the schools that serve them. Career and Technical Education (CTE) workforce grants connect students to real jobs. Flat federal appropriations are real-dollar cuts when costs rise.

Education: Invest

Fund public broadcasting, including WJCT in Jacksonville

Corporation for Public Broadcasting (CPB) federal appropriation at risk

The Corporation for Public Broadcasting (CPB) funds NPR, PBS, and local stations including WJCT in Jacksonville. Cutting CPB hits smaller media markets first, where local stations have fewer private revenue alternatives. Civic information is infrastructure.

Education: Reclaim

Pilot guaranteed income programs in underserved FL-CD4 communities

Dept. of Health and Human Services (HHS) and Dept. of Labor (DOL) demonstration grants available

Federal demonstration grants through the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and the Department of Labor exist to fund community economic pilots. Targeting underserved communities in FL-CD4 positions the district for funding that tests real solutions to economic instability.

Pushback

Opponents argue education funding is a state prerogative and that CPB defunding is a legitimate debate. The response: Title I is a statutory entitlement that flows to where poverty exists, regardless of state preference. CPB's per-citizen cost is less than one hour of F-35 maintenance.

Economic Security and Wages
Economic Security: Invest

Use federal contracts to raise wages for FL-CD4 workers

$5.5B annual federal contracting base in FL-CD4

Naval Air Station (NAS) Jacksonville, Naval Station Mayport, and their contractors make FL-CD4 one of Florida's most federally contracted districts. Federal contractor wage floor requirements raise pay for thousands of workers without new appropriations. The lever is the contract language.

Economic Security: Invest

Keep more federal contract dollars in the district

FL-CD4 small businesses capture 18% of contracts vs. a 23% federal goal

FL-CD4 small businesses are below the federal small business contracting target by 5 percentage points. Small Business Administration (SBA) set-aside programs exist to close that. A House member writes those requirements into authorization language. That is exactly what a Purse-focused representative does.

Economic Security: Tax Reform

Tax stock buybacks and invest the savings in worker wages

$30B per year preference eliminated

A buyback tax paired with a wage investment credit for companies that raise worker pay redirects capital from shareholder returns to the people who earned it.

Economic Security: Tax Reform

Tax hedge fund profits like wages, not at the lower capital gains rate

$18B over 10 years (CBO score)

Hedge fund and private equity managers currently pay lower tax rates on their fees than a teacher pays on their salary. This "carried interest" loophole affects fewer than 10,000 taxpayers and costs $18 billion over a decade.

Pushback

Critics argue federal contractor wage floors raise contract costs paid by taxpayers. The response: Department of Defense (DoD) wage requirements have been in place multiple times without measurable cost inflation. Carried interest and data center credit closure are named platform provisions. Not abstractions.

Gun Safety and Public Safety
Gun Safety: Invest

Modernize the background check system

28M checks per year on outdated infrastructure

The National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) processes over 28 million background checks a year on infrastructure that hasn't kept pace. Modernizing NICS and closing private sale loopholes is the practical mechanism behind universal background checks.

Gun Safety: Reclaim

Fund CDC gun violence research. Treat it like the public health crisis it is.

$15M per year

An amendment effectively banned CDC gun violence research for 20 years. That ban was partially lifted. Fully funding CDC and NIH research on gun violence builds the evidence base that every downstream policy intervention depends on.

Pushback

Second Amendment advocates say NICS funding is a backdoor to a gun registry, and that CDC research is biased. The response: NICS is a point-of-sale check with no registry function written into law. CDC applies the same research standards to gun violence it applies to car crashes and opioids.

Cannabis and Justice
Cannabis: Tax Reform / Redirect

Federal legalization creates tax revenue and banking access

$8–10B in new annual federal tax revenue (RAND estimate)

Federal prohibition forces legal, state-licensed cannabis businesses to operate in cash with no banking. They pay effective tax rates above 70% under Section 280E. Federal legalization unlocks banking, creates a taxable revenue stream, and redirects that revenue away from unregulated markets.

Veterans: Reclaim

Veterans shouldn't lose VA benefits for using state-legal medical cannabis

40,000+ Florida veterans hold state medical cannabis cards

Veterans who use state-legal medical cannabis risk losing VA benefits under federal prohibition. Florida has over 40,000 registered medical marijuana patients who are also veterans. Federal rescheduling resolves the conflict.

Pushback

Opponents argue legalization increases youth access and public health costs. The response: youth cannabis use has not increased in states that legalized. Revenue projections are from RAND, not advocacy groups. Alcohol and tobacco are federally legal, taxed, and regulated.

Technology and Digital Rights
Technology: Defund / Redirect

Stop subsidizing data centers that create very few local jobs

$40B per year in federal and state tax breaks

Data centers receive major federal and state tax incentives. They consume enormous amounts of land, water, and power. And they create very few local jobs for their size. Eliminating these subsidies redirects public dollars toward investments that actually employ people.

Technology: Defund / Redirect

Make Big Tech pay the cost of the harm it creates

FTC enforcement investment

Unregulated data collection, algorithmic pricing, and predatory platforms impose real costs on consumers and communities. Federal investment in Federal Trade Commission (FTC) enforcement shifts those costs back to the companies profiting from them.

Pushback

Industry argues data center tax credits support AI infrastructure and competition with China. The response: unlimited public subsidy for private infrastructure is not a competitiveness strategy. Eliminating data center credits still leaves all private investment incentives intact.

Your vote, their money: fix the system
Accountability: Defund / Redirect

Get dark money out of politics

$15–20B in untracked campaign money since Citizens United

The people writing the federal budget are chosen by the same donors who benefit from the tax code they write. Getting money out of politics is the prerequisite for every other Purse reform on this list.

Accountability: Reclaim

Independent redistricting: competitive districts fight harder for their share

Federal earmarks and grant competition

Safe, gerrymandered districts concentrate federal appropriations in politically protected hands. Competitive districts produce members who fight harder for their constituents' share of federal dollars. Fair maps are a Purse issue.

Pushback

First Amendment advocates say campaign finance limits restrict political speech. The response: disclosure requirements and small-dollar matching don't limit speech. They amplify voices that can't write seven-figure checks.

Tax expenditures: the $1.9 trillion budget nobody votes on
More than the entire discretionary budget. Most of it flows to the top 20%. Reforming it is not new spending. It is redirecting public dollars that are already being spent.

The hidden budget: This money doesn't show up in the budget. It disappears through the tax code. The federal government spends roughly $1.8–2.0 trillion every year through deductions, credits, and special tax rates that never go through the normal budget process. This "invisible spending" is larger than all discretionary spending combined. Unlike regular appropriations, most of these tax breaks are permanent, uncapped, and flow mostly to corporations and high-income households. Reforming them is not new spending. It is redirecting existing public dollars toward people who actually need them. Source: JCT / OMB Analytical Perspectives.

Total annual tax expenditures
$1.9T
JCT estimate, FY2025
All discretionary spending (for comparison)
$1.7T
Tax expenditures are larger
Corporate and wealth-concentrated share: reform target
$620B
Platform-aligned reform targets
Available to redirect to people and deficit
$585B
$620B reform target minus a $35B responsible phase-in buffer. $80B to deficit reduction, $505B to programs.
The biggest federal tax breaks: FY2025
Reform target (platform-aligned)
Broad-based benefits (preserved)
Source: JCT-1-25; OMB FY2026 Analytical Perspectives Table 17-1. Red bars = reform targets. Gray bars = broad-based benefits like child tax credits and retirement accounts, preserved under the Purse plan. The $620B reform target reflects partial reform, not full elimination: the employer health exclusion would be capped, not ended; capital gains reform applies only to earners above $1M; real estate depreciation reform applies only above a portfolio threshold.
Who benefits from tax expenditures: today vs. under the Purse plan
Right now, more than 60% of federal tax break benefits flow to the top 20% of earners. The Purse plan reforms corporate and wealth loopholes and redirects that revenue toward working families.
Top 20% (wealth / corporate)
Upper-middle (40th–80th percentile)
Bottom 60% (working families)
Current distribution: Brookings / JCT. Purse plan projection: estimated based on closing corporate and wealth loopholes while preserving the EITC, Child Tax Credit, and retirement exclusions. Not a CBO score.
FL-CD4 residents affected: today vs. OBBBA cuts vs. the Purse Plan
Three bars per program. Left = today. Middle = under current OBBBA cuts. Right = under the Purse Plan.
Today: adequately served
Today: underserved
OBBBA cuts: still covered
Purse Plan: protected and newly reached
Purse Plan: gap that remains (honest)
Today: current enrollment scaled to FL-CD4's 3.57% share of Florida's population (769,221 residents). OBBBA column reflects enacted cuts and subsidy expirations. Purse Plan: ACA restoration + public option = 143K; SNAP fully protected = 74K; housing investment = 34K; VA MISSION Act = 18K; Title I expansion = 48K. Teal stack = gap that remains even under the plan. All estimates carry wide confidence intervals. Not a CBO score. Sources: KFF, CBO, FPI, HUD, VA OIG, RAND.
Before and after: where $620B in reformed tax breaks goes
Right now, $620 billion a year in federal tax breaks goes mostly to corporations and high-income households. This chart shows where it goes today, and where it would go under the Purse plan. About $505B goes to platform priorities, $80B to deficit reduction, and $35B is held as a responsible economic buffer.
Current: where the subsidy goes now
Purse plan: proposed reallocation
Reallocation estimates drawn from CBO program cost scores, JCT revenue estimates, and platform commitments. Figures assume a responsible 4-year phase-in. Not a CBO score.
What these mean for FL-CD4
$300B/yr
The employer health insurance tax break locks in a system that leaves millions out

The single biggest federal tax break excludes employer-sponsored health insurance from taxable income. This keeps the employer-based model in place and leaves out the self-employed, gig workers, and those between jobs. It costs more per year than the entire Medicaid program. Capping it for high earners is the financing mechanism for a public option that covers everyone.

$180B/yr
Capital gains and carried interest: wealth taxed at half the rate of wages

Long-term investment profits are taxed at roughly half the rate of wages. Hedge fund and private equity fees are compensation for a service. They are taxed as investment gains rather than income. Closing carried interest alone raises $18 billion over 10 years. This is the "make corporations and the wealthy pay their fair share" part of the platform.

$85B/yr
Accelerated depreciation for real estate: the federal code is writing the build-to-rent check

This tax provision lets real estate investors write off properties far faster than they actually lose value. It generates paper losses that offset real income. This is the core financial engine behind institutional landlords scaling rapidly in markets like Duval. Build-to-rent grew 600% in FL-CD4 since 2019. The federal tax code is funding that.

$65B/yr
Like-kind exchange (1031): the flipper's best friend, the first-time buyer's worst enemy

This provision lets real estate investors defer capital gains indefinitely by rolling sale profits into a new property. Properties cycle through institutional hands indefinitely instead of being sold to owner-occupants. Limiting 1031 exchanges to portfolios below a dollar threshold redirects the tax benefit toward smaller investors and first-time buyers.

$40B/yr
Data center tax credits: subsidizing the fewest jobs per dollar spent

Section 48 investment tax credits and bonus depreciation let data centers write off 100% of construction costs immediately. Data centers consume large amounts of land, water, and power. They create very few local jobs relative to that footprint. The platform: stop data center tax breaks.

$30B/yr
Stock buybacks: shareholders first, workers later

Before a 1% excise tax was enacted in 2022, stock buybacks were entirely tax-free. The preference still heavily favors returning capital to shareholders over raising worker pay. The platform: fight for higher wages; make corporations pay their fair share.

$25B/yr
Pharmaceutical tax deductions: why your prescriptions cost more in the U.S. than anywhere else

Tax provisions and offshore accounting let drug companies deduct research costs twice and shift profits to low-tax countries. This is the mechanism behind U.S. drug prices running 2–5 times higher than peer nations. The platform: Medicare drug price negotiation.

Pushback

The serious critique: tax reform only reduces the deficit if Congress doesn't immediately spend the savings. Supply-side economists argue accelerated depreciation and R&D credits drive real investment. The response: the JCT scores reform revenue as real. The investment argument applies to productive capital. Not financial engineering like carried interest, 1031 rollovers, and buybacks. Those are the specific targets.

Federal budget: FY2025
The full $7.0 trillion picture: mandatory spending, discretionary categories, and interest on the national debt.
Total FY2025 spending
$7.0T
About 25% of U.S. GDP
Mandatory outlays
$4.2T
60% of the total budget
Discretionary spending
$1.7T
~24%, subject to annual budget caps
Interest on the national debt
$892B
13% of the budget and rising
Mandatory spending: FY2025
Social Security $1.6T
Medicare $987B
Medicaid + CHIP $626B
Other mandatory $987B
Net interest $892B
Source: CBO pub. 61951, Mandatory Spending in Fiscal Year 2025
Discretionary spending: key categories (FY2025)
Defense $872B
Veterans $135B
Transportation $106B
Health / HHS $100B
Education $79B
Housing / HUD $77B
Other $331B
Source: CRS IN12535 / OMB FY2025 enacted appropriations
Florida: where federal dollars land
$37.9 billion of Florida's state budget comes from Washington. Medicaid is the dominant program. Housing and education are where the district is most exposed.
FL total state budget
$117B
FY 2025-26 signed
Federal share of FL state budget
$37.9B
33 cents of every dollar Florida spends
FL Medicaid + CHIP
$33.4B
72% of the entire state HHS budget
FL ACA enrollees 2025
4.7M
Highest in the nation. 97% receive subsidies.
Federal dollars in Florida's budget by category
Medicaid / Health $33.4B
Other $6.3B
Infrastructure $2.1B
Education $3.9B
Housing $1.2B
Source: FL Governor's Office FY2025-26 signed budget; Florida Policy Institute budget summaries
Federal investment per person enrolled, by program (estimated)
These are per-enrolled-beneficiary figures, not cash payments to individuals. Federal dollars flow to providers and institutions. Medicare (~4.7M enrollees), Medicaid (~5.2M), SNAP (~3.5M), Education (school-age population), HUD (assisted households). Source estimates based on program-specific enrollment counts.
FL-CD4: Clay, Nassau, and west and north Duval
769,221 residents. ~$5.5 billion in annual federal contracts. $14.5 million in housing grants. $800 million in infrastructure money already authorized and not yet applied for.
Jacksonville city budget
$1.9B
FY 2024-25 approved
HUD housing grant (Duval)
$7.1M
Annual community development entitlement
HOME affordable housing (Duval)
$3.6M
Annual (verified)
Affordable housing in a $2B city budget
$12M
Less than 1% of the city's budget
Annual federal contracts in FL-CD4
$5.5B
DoD + civilian combined
Share going to local small businesses
18%
vs. 23% federal SBA goal
NAS Jax + Mayport personnel
25K
Active duty + civilian
SBA 8(a) / HUBZone eligible
Yes
Multiple Duval ZIP codes qualify

A note on the numbers below: Medicare and Medicaid dollars flow to hospitals and providers. They do not flow through Jacksonville's city budget. The pass-through estimates below are based on FL-CD4's 3.57% share of Florida's population. The district is not three whole counties: it holds exactly 769,221 residents — Clay (218,245) and Nassau (90,352) in full, plus 460,624 of Duval, the part west and north of the St. Johns River. Congressional districts must be equal in population, so FL-CD4 is precisely one twenty-eighth of the state. Source: Plan EOGPCRP2026 (HB 1-D, enrolled); 2020 Census.

Federal funding reaching FL-CD4: verified grants vs. estimated pass-throughs
Medicaid / CHIP est. pass-through
Military / Defense (cumulative)
SNAP food benefits (est.)
Transportation 5-yr plan
Education Title I (est.)
HUD grants (verified)
HUD grants: City of Jacksonville 2025 Annual Action Plan (verified). Military: GovernmentContractsWon.com, cumulative. Transportation: North Florida TPO TIP 2024-29. Medicaid / CHIP: $33.4B federal share of Florida's budget × 3.57% — flows to providers, not to residents directly. SNAP: $6.64B in Florida benefits (USDA OIG / CBPP, FY2024) × 3.57%. Education Title I: $973.5M Florida FY2025 allocation (CRS R48953) × 3.57%. Medicare is deliberately omitted: CMS publishes only per-beneficiary standardized spending, so there is no citable Florida total to apportion, and Medicare dollars flow to providers rather than to a geographic district. Lines marked (est.) are population-proportional estimates, not verified grants.
Who captures federal contracting dollars in FL-CD4
Large prime contractors (headquarters out of district) ~64%
Mid-size / national (some local jobs) ~18%
Local small business (SBA set-asides) ~18%
Estimates based on DoD SBIR/STTR data and SBA federal procurement reports. FL-CD4's small business share lags the 23% federal SBA goal. SBA 8(a), HUBZone, and SDVOSB set-asides are the lever. Getting there requires a congressional member actively writing those requirements into authorization language.
The money flow: from Washington to FL-CD4
Federal budget
$7.0T
→
Florida's share
$37.9B
→
FL-CD4 3.57% of FL
~$1.35B est.
→
Verified city grants
~$25M
FL-CD4's share of Florida's population is not an estimate. The district holds exactly 769,221 of Florida's 21,538,187 apportioned residents — 3.57%, or one of 28 equal districts. It takes in Clay and Nassau whole, plus the part of Duval west and north of the St. Johns River. The vast majority of federal dollars flow to healthcare providers, not to residents or community programs directly.
Critical local gaps
Infrastructure
$2.5 billion project backlog in Duval. The city clears $250M a year.

At the current pace, the backlog never gets fixed. $800 million is already authorized but not applied for. Clay and Nassau have their own road, water, and stormwater backlogs. Federal RAISE grants, infrastructure law carryover, and EPA septic-to-sewer funds are available. The gap is in applying for them.

Housing
$12M for affordable housing in a $2B budget. One in 10 new homes is built for corporate rental.

Build-to-rent grew 600% in Duval since 2019. The trend is spreading into Clay and Nassau. HUD's HOME and CDBG programs are the only federal counter-pressure. The district consistently under-applies for both.

Public Safety
Violent crime rate: 12.43 per 1,000 in Duval, about 1 in 80 residents

JSO and JFR budgets together exceed $1 billion. Federal community violence intervention grants and mental health diversion grants are available but underutilized across the district's federal grant portfolio.

Education
COVID school relief is gone. Nothing is replacing it.

Florida used 90% of its $14.6 billion in pandemic education emergency funds. That cushion no longer exists. Title I and CTE workforce funding across Duval, Clay, and Nassau now face flat or declining appropriations with no state backstop in place.

These are first-term jobs. Write the grant applications. Change the authorization language. Require the small business set-asides. The $800 million sitting unspent in Duval's infrastructure pipeline doesn't need a new law. It needs someone in Washington who shows up and asks for it. That is what a Purse-focused representative does on day one.

Sources and methodology
Primary sources: CBO, CRS, KFF, RAND, JCT, OMB, USASpending. Secondary sources: FPI, Brookings, journalism, all attributed and tiered below.
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